Statistics on TUC March day…

This morning’s Guardian/ICM poll says most people back the cuts.

However, as I’ve said many times, the accuracy of any research depends upon the sample size, whether it be medical research or market research, like this.

Bearing that in mind the ITV/ComRes poll – based on sample twice the size and thus statistically more accurate – says most people are against the cuts.

The question is, on such a vital matter, on such a vital day, why would the Guardian commission an inadequate poll? They know how these things work as well as I do.

My personal view, based on reading newspapers, particularly the comments pages, is that the country is more or less evenly divided, the Labour party under the wrong Miliband is a busted flush, and anybody banking on a “Poll Tax Effect” from today’s march is deluding themselves.

It’s not going to be that easy.