Born at the end of WWII, I grew up during the Cold War, when for an entire generation, the very real threat of being nuked was ever-present. That’s not to say that most people were constantly pre-occupied with that possibility - that way lies paranoia - but, as with my peers, it was always at the back of my mind, no more so than during the Cuban Missile Crisis of October, 1962, when JFK faced down the Russians who were beavering away building and supplying missile bases in Cuba (for those of you too young to have been there, Wikipedia has a decent, if boring, entry on the subject, and this one is rather more readable).
For those of us who were there - I was 18 at the time - the vague fears of the Cold War suddenly took on a terrifying reality. In October 1962, the world was closer to nuclear conflagration than at any time before or since, and only the fact that the fears of MAD prevailed, ensured that the world was not plunged into a nuclear holocaust from which it may never have recovered.
MAD, by the way, meant Mutually Assured Destruction. The principal was simple - if Russia carried out even a single nuclear missile strike against the US or its allies, the US/allies would respond with devastating nuclear force to annihilate Russia. Russia, then, detecting the missile launches, would respond in kind. Result - almost everybody dies and the world is plunged into nuclear winter (there were enough nukes in the world at that time to destroy everybody several times over - there probably still is). MAD indeed, but in this instance common sense eventually prevailed, and Russia backed down, picked up its lethal toys, and went home. It wasn’t as one-sided a victory as it appears, as the US agreed to a no invasion agreement (of Cuba), and to a secret removal of the Jupiter and Thor missiles based in Turkey. Doubtless, though, that affair still rankles in the Kremlin.
Trust me, anyone who says “If you can remember the Sixties, you weren’t there!”, is talking complete bollocks - the events of those two weeks in ‘62 are branded indelibly on the memories of everyone. If you really don’t remember, you must have been stoned beyond all hope of redemption!
Imagine my dismay today, then, after a week of Russian aggression in the Caucuses, not to mention Russian lies and denials of what everyone with a TV or an Internet connection knows the truth of - pretty much all-out war against Georgia - when I saw today’s headlines “Moscow warns it could strike Poland over US missile shield.”
In response to Poland’s signing of a treaty with the US to host 10 interceptor rockets said to be intended to destroy any eventual ballistic missile attacks from Iran, in return for which Poland is to receive a battery of US Patriot missiles for its air defences and has won a mutual security pact with Washington.
In response, Russian Colonel General Anatoly Nogovitsyn has warned that “By deploying, Poland is exposing itself to a strike - 100%.” He also pointed out that Russian military doctrine permits the use of nuclear weapons “against the allies of countries having nuclear weapons if they in some way help them.” This is rhetoric (if, indeed, that’s all it is), worthy of Russia’s most rabid Cold War military psychopaths (with which it seemed liberally supplied), who would break into a deranged anti-US rant if a soldier on sentry duty in Berlin so much as broke wind. The problem is, though, as Russia grows increasingly paranoid, aggressive and seemingly expansionist, I doubt it can be dismissed as mere rhetoric.
Russia’s puppet president, Medvedev (how can he talk out of his arse with Putin’s arm up it?), said claims that the shield was aimed at Iran were “fairy tales”. He went of to say, probably only pausing to wipe the froth from his lips, that “This clearly demonstrates that the deployment of new anti-missile forces in Europe has as its aim the Russian Federation. The moment has been well chosen.”
Suppose, though, that the symbiotic Medvedev/Putin beast is right - and I suspect they are - how can they be surprised? Iran quite clearly is a potential nuclear threat, but Russia represents a clear and present danger to Western peace and security, and the West can’t sit idly by indefinitely (though it’s doing a pretty good job so far, what with Angela Merkel’s pathetic rebuke of Russia, “Some of Russia’s actions were not proportionate”. Yep, that’ll have them quaking in their boots alright - what’s next on her agenda, a blow-job for MedvePutin?
And, please, don’t draw any comparisons between Cuba and Poland - Cuba is a mere 90 miles away from the US, between Russia and Poland are Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania and Latvia. They are not immediate neighbours as the US and Cuba are. Note - Senior officers also announced that it was likely that Russia could deploy Iskander short-range missiles in Belarus, a claim that has not been denied by the Kremlin.
Russia has also bitched and whined about being “squeezed” by Europe/NATO. Since Russia occupies over 30% of the European land mass, it’s beyond me how a country that size could be squeezed in any meaningful way. Paranoia? Possibly. Laying the groundwork to justify its expansionism (Lebensraum, anybody?)? Probably.
I had thought, with the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the subsequent fragmentation of the fringes of the old USSR (a.k.a. Russia), that tensions would end between East and West and, indeed, they did ease for a while. Now, though, given Russia’s current expansionist tendencies, demonstrated so clearly in Georgia (which they appear to be getting away with), it may well turn its attention to repossessing its former dominions, especially Ukraine, which would give it a land corridor into the heart of Europe (as Hungary discovered, to its cost, in 1956). And as Ukraine isn’t a member of NATO, Russia could invade with relative impunity. And yet, demonstrating all the cynicism and hypocrisy that has been a feature of Russian politics since the Revolution, Russia claims to be mortified by the proposed siting of anti-missile missiles in Poland. Of course, they choose to overlook the fact that the missile shield is primarily defensive, in an attempt to seize the initiative and intimidate Poland (yes, yes, I know, any missile can be used offensively - give me a break!), yet they cannot legitimately claim to be threatened unless they actually have designs on Poland, as in the past.
In the Nineties, the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty set targets to eliminate heavy intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMS) and all other multiple-warhead ICBMS. It also aimed to reduce the total number of strategic nuclear weapons deployed by both countries (the US and USSR), by two-thirds below pre-START (i.e., pre 1991), levels.
We can be pretty sure the US complied with the terms of START, and pretty publicly, but did the Russians, I wonder? Let’s face it, it’s a huge county now, but it was even larger then, with ample wilderness space to squirrel away thousands of ICBMs and shorter-range nukes, safe from the gaze of spy satellites.
If Russia’s apparent expansionist tendencies escalate, then the West will, sooner or later, be forced to respond militarily, and Bush won’t hesitate to jump in with both feet, if he’s still in office, dragging the UK into the mess. Even if he’s gone by then, McCain is just as bad, and Obama is an idiot who, not too long ago, advocated the bombing of Pakistan (before someone took him off to one side and explained that they were on the same side!). If Russia’s rhetoric turns out not to be, and they really are prepared to deploy nuclear missiles as a first choice, then the next 6 months or so could very well make Cuba look like a church garden party by comparison, and I sincerely doubt that the outcome will be as favourable. . .
NB. I’ve used “Russia” throughout, rather than the more correct USSR in the earlier paragraphs, for consistency and because youngsters, today, may not have heard of the USSR - the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.